I’ve talked a lot in this space about how far ahead West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice is in various polls of the 2024 Republican primary for U.S. Senate, but U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney has at least one advantage: money.
I’m not talking about a specific dollar amount, but I am talking about a potential shifting of resources by national groups trying to tip the U.S. Senate back to a majority GOP body.
Justice, once the state’s only known billionaire according to Forbes, has seen his estimated wealth cut by more than half. And it’s likely worse than that based on his own financial disclosure report filed at the end of summer with the U.S. Senate. Justice has already said several times he has no intentions of self-funding his campaign from his financial largesse, likely because he doesn’t have that big of a piggy bank anymore.
It is well established that Justice was recruited to run for U.S. Senate by the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Senate Leadership Fund, tied to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. They saw Justice’s close relationship with Trump and his fairly consistent popularity in the state since 2020 as positives.
To these groups, Justice was the best chance to either take on U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., in a 2024 general election or, even better, pressure Manchin into retiring from the Senate and avoiding the fight altogether. And as long as Manchin was either an announced candidate or a pending candidate, these groups would be willing to support Justice financially.
But Manchin is now not running for re-election, taking that threat off the table. It remains to be seen if a Democratic candidate in Manchin’s style of blue dog moderation files to run. The one Democratic candidate — Zachary Shrewsbury — is running as a progressive, and progressive Democrats do not do well on statewide ballots in West Virginia.
With no Democratic threat yet, what incentive do groups like the NRSC and the Senate Leadership Fund have to pour a bunch of money toward Justice in West Virginia? The Cook Political Report considers West Virginia as a solid red state and not as risk. And there are potential GOP pickups for the Senate in 2024, such as Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, and John Tester, D-Montana. Why would these groups not shift resources elsewhere if West Virginia has a good chance of going red regardless of whether the candidate is Justice or Mooney?
Justice has more than $1.1 million in cash on hand after the last quarterly fundraising period. All of that has come from donations and not from his own wallet. Mooney has more than $1.5 million in cash on hand during the same period. The conservative advocacy group Club for Growth has pledged as much as $10 million toward defeating Justice. The group has already spent more than $696,000 against Justice.
As I’ve pointed out, Justice is very popular in West Virginia despite his business issues and recent state department controversies. But Club for Growth Action just committed more than $557,000 in broadcast ad buys across the state attacking Justice on some of these issues. This is phase one of a $1.2 million planned ad buy. This pressure could put a dent in Justice’s support and show Mooney and his supporters a path forward.
Then again, it could be a double-edged sword for Mooney. The Club for Growth is actively campaigning against former Republican president Donald Trump, who is once again seeking the GOP nomination for a 2024 presidential run after losing to Democratic President Joe Biden in 2020. Trump remains very popular in West Virginia, and Trump just endorsed Justice for the Senate GOP primary.
The more Republican and independent voters in West Virginia are made aware that the anti-Trump Club for Growth supports Mooney, that could sour support for Mooney as the state approaches the May 2024 primary.
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The Club for Growth has also pledged millions toward supporting Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in the 2024 Republican primary for governor of West Virginia. But while Morrisey is a vocal Trump supporter, he could face a similar voter backlash due to Club for Growth’s efforts to oppose Trump going into 2024.
Axios had an article last week talking about this conundrum for Club for Growth: opposing Trump while supporting pro-Trump candidates down the ballot. The Club for Growth has funded more than $6 million in ads in states that play a role in deciding presidential nominees.
The Club for Growth supported Kentucky Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron this year in an effort to defeat Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear, including airing ads promoting Cameron’s support for Trump. But Beshear won re-election to a second term.
And last week, conservative advocacy group Americans for Prosperity endorsed former Republican South Carolina governor and former U.S. ambassador Nikki Haley for the GOP presidential nomination. The West Virginia chapter of Americans for Prosperity supports Morrisey for governor.
That’s always the problem with national groups getting involved in statewide races: It can help, but it can also hurt. And since the law prohibits collaboration between candidates and independent groups, there is very little a candidate can do to back away from this support.