Glynn’s Take: RBA Policy Decision Seems Too Tough to Call With Cautious Bullock at the Helm

SYDNEY—The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision next week on whether to resume raising interest rates in response to higher-than-expected third-quarter inflation is too close to call.

That’s because the RBA’s tightening cycle is already well advanced, with a lot of the pain of the prior run of rate hikes yet to be felt by companies and home buyers. The threat of a spike in mortgage defaults and business failures will grow sharply if loan repayment costs rise much further.