AFC
Baltimore Ravens (6-2)
Fatal flaw: health
It’s all coming together for Baltimore this season. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level. New coordinator Todd Monken has invigorated the offense, clearing open easy buckets for the quarterback. On defense, coordinator Mike Macdonald is at the vanguard of a defense movement; he will be the top head coaching candidate heading into the offseason. For the first time in years, the Ravens have a genuine pass rush. They win through scheme and individual excellence. The only concern: can they keep this up? Injuries have already depleted parts of the roster, and the Ravens do not have depth in the most important spots to cover up any health concerns heading towards the back half of the season. Injuries have scuppered a Ravens title bid before. If they do stay healthy though, they have the ideal championship formula.
Miami Dolphins (6-2)
Fatal flaw: turnovers
The Dolphins are as close to unstoppable on offense as any team in the league. On defense though, the team has struggled to generate the kind of turnovers that are a calling card of Vic Fangio’s frequently vaunted defenses. The Dolphins currently have a minus-four turnover differential, putting them 27th in the league. They have only eight defensive takeaways this season, the lowest mark among any Super Bowl contender. The return of Jalen Ramsey could be a solution. Few players are as instinctive as Ramsey – and in Fangio’s defense he will be given free rein to play all over the field, a freedom he has rarely enjoyed throughout his All-Pro career.
Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)
Fatal flaw: receivers
This is the best defense that Patrick Mahomes has played with in five seasons. For the first time since Mahomes became the starter, the Chiefs have cracked the top five in DVOA, a measure of down-to-down efficiency. Given that, you would expect KC to be steamrolling all before them.
They’re not though. Issues outside the Travis Kelce-Mahomes connection put a (slight) lid on the Chiefs’ offensive ceiling. GM John Dorsey moved at the trade deadline to bring back Mecole Hardman, but the they still field the weakest receiving corps among the AFC’s top contenders. Perhaps Mahomes and Kelce, with a supplementary run game, will prove to be enough. They’ve done it before. The Chiefs have a fairly benign schedule the rest of the way, plenty of time for Mahomes to strike up the kind of chemistry he has built before with average-to-good receivers.
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)
Fatal flaw: pass rush
On paper, the Jags have everything a team need to compete deep into the postseason, including an ascending quarterback and talent at the skill positions. Now that Cam Robinson has returned from suspension and other members of his unit are healthy, the Jags have one of the most best offensive lines in the league. On defense, they’re smart, athletic and malleable. But outside Josh Allen, they’ve struggled to generate a consistent pass rush. They’ve created plenty of pressures but failed to convert them into drive-ending sacks. So much of Jacksonville’s oomph up front this season has been concentrated on Allen, who has been one of the best one-on-one rushers in football. Travon Walker, the 2022 No 1 overall pick, has flashed promise after a disappointing rookie year, but he’s yet to show that he can consistently win on the edge. If Walker can catch fire down the stretch, the Jaguars will be one of the toughest teams to face in the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills (5-3)
Fatal flaw: interior defensive line
Sean McDermott reassumed creative control of the Bills defense this offseason. So far, the results have largely been the same. The Bills have been more diverse on the back-end of their defense, and the team’s pass rush, solid a year ago, has been excellent this campaign, even with Von Miller missing the bulk of the season. But Buffalo’s front can still be pushed around in the run game. Last season’s exit from the playoffs was perhaps more dispiriting than the 13-second loss to Kansas City. The Bills were bullied by the Bengals upfront. And things are trending in that direction again. At some point, one of the Bills’ interior linemen – Jordan Phillips or Ed Oliver – needs to become a potent weapon against the run. How Buffalo allowed the Seahawks to swoop in to acquire Leonard Williams from the Giants remains a mystery.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-3)
Fatal flaw: cornerbacks
Now that Joe Burrow is fully healthy, the Bengals’ offense looks like a different unit. What was an early concern (as always seems to be the way with the Bengals offense) will dissipate over the course of the season. But there are issues on defense. Lou Anarumo (Loudini!) remains one of the best defensive coordinators in the league. Yet there’s only so far he can scheme his way to success. In the past couple of years, Cincy have been happy to get by with a weaker cornerback room due to the presence of Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell at safety. Both left in free agency and their replacements haven’t played up to the same level this season. The Bengals still have a creative group and a ferocious pass-rush, but those cornerback spots could be exposed in the playoffs without strong safety support behind them.
NFC
Philadelphia Eagles (7-1)
Fatal flaw: linebackers and safeties
It’s hard to find any flaw on the Eagles’ roster. If there’s a missing piece, you best believe Howie Roseman will go and find it. Philly made a decision to deprioritize safeties and linebackers in the draft and free agency. On balance, that’s the correct team-building approach. But it has left the team’s defense, at times, exposed. The Eagles have coughed up 300 yard passing games to Kirk Cousins and Mac Jones, and allowed Sam Howell to consistently drive down the field. Injuries to star cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry did not help in the early stages of the season. Both are now back, but opposing offenses are still finding ways to isolate and attack the Eagles’ linebackers in coverage.
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Detroit Lions (6-2)
Fatal flaw: inexperience
Poke around the Lions roster and you will find there are shockingly few holes for a team still early in its development cycle. They have the best offensive line in the league. They have playmakers on offense – and bolstered them this week with the addition of Donovan Peoples-Jones. On defense, a group that looked like it was a year away from coalescing has done so much quicker. Aidan Hutchinson is now an every-down difference-maker. Rookie Brian Branch has stepped in and delivered All-Pro output from the slot. Another first-year player, Jack Campbell, is still yet to find a settled spot, but has given quality reps regardless of where he’s lined up. Without a top perimeter cornerback, the secondary should have been a concern. There have been tough outings, but so far the secondary has been good enough to keep the Lions on a division-winning trajectory. Even the much-maligned Jared Goff has performed at a top-10 level among quarterbacks this season. The only thing holding Detroit back is a lack of players who have experience in the playoffs.
San Francisco 49ers (5-3)
Fatal flaw: defensive identity
If you want to point to the offensive line here, go right ahead. But the Niners’ issues on defense could be more important by the time the playoffs roll around. The Niners currently have one of the weakest run defenses in the league. Worse than that: there’s a schism between defensive coordinator Steve Wilks and a group filled with All-Pros.
When the Niners hired Wilks this offseason, they took a progressive approach. Rather than hire a DC with a settled philosophy, turning the keys to one of the best defenses in the NFL over to someone to shape in their own image, they opted to hand their playbook and their scheme to interviewees before settling on the best fit. The coach would inherit the scheme rather than build out his own style.
The returns have been iffy. The Niners had the top defense in the league last season by every conceivable metric. This season, they rank 11th in EPA per play and 16th in DVOA, both measures of efficiency. Wilks is struggling to marry the Niners’ fronts to their coverage, which is a fancy way of saying things are disjointed. For years, the Niners have been as structurally sound from front to back as any team in the league, with star players free to do what star players do best: fly to the ball.
As Wilks has struggled to adjust to the Niner way of doing things, he’s leaned on his old crutch: the blitz. The Niners are blitzing at just a 20% clip, the third lowest mark in the league. That’s down on last season’s total. But those blitz rates have fluctuated week-to-week, and have ticked up steadily in fourth-quarters when games have been tight – often proving costly.
Trading for Chase Young should see the Niners return to their previous methods: a four-down-and-go style that cheats an extra player into coverage. Pairing Young with Nick Bosa gives Wilks two players currently in the top-five in pass rush win %, something no other DC in the league can call on. But figuring out how to pair that with a solid structure, no matter the talent on defense, has been a challenge all season.
Dallas Cowboys (5-2)
Fatal flaw: explosive plays
It’s been an up and down season for the Cowboys offense. Some weeks, they smoke all before them. Other weeks, they look stodgy and stale. But, then, what else would you expect when you turn the offense over to Mike McCarthy and the DakBot? Prescott is the consummate on-time and in-rhythm quarterback. Pre-snap, he’s Peyton Manning-esque. But the Prescott who created offense out of structure early in his career is long gone. The offense has to generate explosive, shot plays through creative designs. In CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Tony Pollard, the Cowboys have the pieces. Last season, Dallas totted up 126 explosive plays (12%) on their way to finishing third in the NFL in points a game. This season, they’re up to second in points a game, but have totalled just 27 (6%) explosive plays (gains of 10 or more yards on the run or 20 or more yards passing). McCarthy may believe that trade-offs are worth it; that it might not win brownie points in the regular season but it will set the Cowboys up for postseason success. But expecting to put drive after drive together against championship-caliber defenses is a tall ask. Dallas have to find ways to generate easier, chunk yardage.
Seattle Seahawks (5-2)
Fatal flaw: pass rush
Last season, it was all change for the Seahawks on defense. They ditched the old Pete Carroll doctrine and embraced the new Vic Fangio world. The results? Not great. Seattle were allergic to defending the run, and lacked the star power upfront to deliver a gamechanging pass rush.
It’s all change again this year. The Seahawks have reverted back to Carroll’s old way of doing things. The results so far have been impressive: Seattle have cracked the top 10 in defensive EPA per play and have been outstanding against the run and much improved in rushing the passer. The Seahawks rank 10th in pressure rate and fifth in the league in sacks. It’s been a team effort, with no one player shouldering the whole burden – Boye Mafe leads the team in pressure rate. Is it sustainable? Losing Uchenna Nwosu, the team’s most complete pass rusher, to a pectoral injury for the season stings. Adding Leonard Williams will help add a strong interior presence. But against the best of the best, do Seattle have the kind of one-on-one game-wreckers on the edge who can take over a postseason game?