When the NFL scheduled the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets for a primetime game in Week 3 they had a matchup of Aaron Rodgers vs. Patrick Mahomes in mind.
Instead, they’ll get Mahomes vs. Zach Wilson, approximately 1,000 shots of Taylor Swift cheering on Travis Kelce and a matchup of two teams trending in opposite directions.
The Chiefs started the season slowly with a loss to the Detroit Lions in the Thursday night season-opener. They rebounded with a sluggish win over the Jacksonville Jaguars before getting everything clicking against the Bears in a 41-10 win.
The hype around the Rodgers era in New York lasted four plays before the 39-year-old quarterback tore his Achilles tendon. The Jets gave fans a bit of hope by winning the game anyway, but they’ve managed just 20 points over the last two weeks in two losses.
Here’s a look at the Sunday night matchup from a betting perspective including the latest odds and a few prop picks to watch for.
Date: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 8:20 p.m. ET
Watch: NBC/Peacock
Moneyline: Chiefs -425 (wager $425 to win $100); Jets +330 ($100 wager wins $330)
Spread: Chiefs -9.5
Over/Under: 41.5
Odds from DraftKings.
For the Jets to make this game competitive and have a shot at covering the spread, they are going to have to make major improvements from Week 3 to Week 4.
On paper, the Jets best chance of keeping the game close is for the defense to live up to the hype it created for itself last season. With Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams and a litany of additional pass-rushing options up front New York has most of the ingredients it needs to field an elite defense.
Yet, Gang Green comes into the contest ranked 20th in overall defensive EPA per play and they are giving up positive EPA on a per-dropback basis. In other words, the Jets are not living up to the hype as a potentially elite defense this season.
Offensively, the issues are a little more obvious for New York. Rodgers was going to have a hard time having success behind the Jets offensive line. Putting Wilson behind the unit has just been a disaster.
The line has not been able to protect Wilson and he hasn’t made good decisions even when they do. However, there is hope in the fact that they shook things up in Week 3, opting to give rookie Joe Tippman his first career start while kicking Alijah Vera-Tucker over to right tackle and moving Mekhi Becton back to the left side.
On the Chiefs side, you have a Death Star that is really starting to get the cannons warmed up. Travis Kelce missed the first game of the season, seemed to be getting loose in the second game and took back over as the undoubted No. 1 receiver in Week 3.
What’s really scary about the Chiefs this season is how well the defense has played. They’ve given up just 19 points over the last two weeks. Granted, the Bears and Jaguars have both had their own problems on offense, but the Chiefs may have the best defense they’ve had in the Mahomes era.
That’s really bad news for a Jets team that desperately needs a good day for the offense.
Prediction: Chiefs -9.5, Over
For those that might not want to take any sides there are always plenty of prop bets to consider. Here’s a look at three picks from choices over DraftKings Sportsbook.
Travis Kelce Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
There’s going to be a lot of attention on Kelce in this game. Some of the reasons will be related to football. He’s clearly the Chiefs No. 1 receiver and the Jets defensive gameplan is going to have to try and limit what he does.
The problem is that this defense couldn’t protect the seams from Pharaoh Brown last week. The Patriots tight end was able to get behind the defense on a simple vertical route. Brown ended up with 71 yards and two touchdowns.
If Pharaoh Brown came close to eclipsing 73.5 yards, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Kelce doesn’t wind up topping the number.
Tyler Conklin Over 2.5 Receptions (-135)
This is a bet on a negative game script for the Jets and Wilson’s chemistry with Conklin. Last week, Wilson looked for his tight end with five targets which was tied for second-most on the team. As a result, Conklin has recorded three or more catches in each of the last two games.
The Chiefs defense has given up more than two catches to the opponent’s top tight end in two of their first three games. Even in a week where they shut down Justin Fields and the Bears Cole Kmet still had two grabs for 22 yards. The Jets might not have a lot of success but they will have a plan to try and get Wilson in rhythm and it probably includes a few easy completions to Conklin.
Dalvin Cook Under 26.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Dalvin Cook was the more effective Jets back in the Week 3 loss to the New England Patriots. That still doesn’t make the over a good play here. Cook managed 18 yards on eight carries while Breece Hall carried the ball 12 times to gain his 18 yards.
Now they draw a Chiefs defense that has been stout against the run. Through three weeks the Chiefs are only giving up 3.9 yards per carry. With Chris Jones causing havoc in the middle of the defensive line and the Jets offensive line in upheaval, it doesn’t feel like a strong bet to take any Jets running back’s over.
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